Top 5 Most Market Moving Indicators For The USD

When it comes to the currency market, most traders will use either technical or fundamental analysis or a combination of both to formulate their strategy, However, even for the casual currency trader, news or event risk can have a dramatic influence on the long and short-term price action of a currency pair.

In this report, we examine the 5 most market moving indicators for the US dollar (we update this report annually) against the Euro. The reason for our focus on the EUR/USD is its status as the most actively traded - and therefore benchmark – currency pair.

Economic Data is Important for Both Fundamental and Technical Traders

It is irrefutable that news or economic data can elicit a sharp reaction from currencies and other financial markets. However not all economic data is created equal. The monthly Non–farm payrolls for example has had a far bigger impact on the US dollar than other perennial top market movers like consumer prices. Indicators rarely keep their same level of influence over a currency though; so it common to see major shifts in the top ranking from year to year.

For example, over the past year, the worst contraction in the US housing market in a quarter century has led indicators like new and existing home sales to crowd out top releases from previous years – like ISM manufacturing. Also, what may create a lasting move in a currency on a day to day basis could be different from what triggers a knee jerk reaction in the US dollar. The top 5 most market moving indicators for the US dollar on a day to day basis are:

1. Non-Farm Payrolls
2. ISM Non-Manufacturing
3. Personal Spending
4. Inflation (Consumer Price Index)
5. Existing Home Sales

Unlike the other numbers, the non-farm payrolls report consistently topped the list of most market moving indicators for the US dollar. As the US economy slowed in 2007 and into 2008, the stability of the labor market was closely watched by all traders and analysts because of its broad ramifications for the overall economy.

Gaps in the Forex Market

One of the main differences between a stock market and the FX market is that the FX market is a true 24 hour a day market. Trading is continuous around the clock and really only is closed on weekends due to the lack of volume rather than an actual close.

The result of this is that you very rarely see gaps on the FX related charts. A gap is when the open of one session is far enough away from the previous close to leave an actual gap on the chart. There can be many gaps on stock market related charts since the market stops trading late in the afternoon and will not reopen until early the next morning.

If a company’s earnings are released after the close, the next day’s opening price can be much higher or lower than the previous close. Any news item that causes a shift in the opinion of the value of the market can result in a gap on the chart. In the FX market, you do not see these gaps during the week as the market is open and trading. However, you can see gaps between the Friday closing price and the Sunday open

week’s trading is a good example as the chart below notes a gap as a result of the G7 meeting over the weekend. You can find more on the G7 meeting at www.forexgen.com, but the chart shows that the EUR/GBP opened much lower on Sunday than it closed on Friday. When you see a gap on a chart, the first thing traders will look for is for the market to move back to fill the gap

Currency Trading with a Strategy

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. We does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what total nonsense is.

Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very 'fast market' which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders' timing will be off. Don't expect to generate returns on every trade.

Let's enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:

Trade with money you can afford to lose:

Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are 'involved with your money' the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.

Identify the state of the market:

What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that's forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.

Determine what time frame you're trading on:

Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind's eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you'll be 'scalping' (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you're looking at. If you trade many times a day, there's no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you'll probably want to analyze 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.

Technical Indicators

Here are a few of the more common types of indicators used in technical analysis.